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Strait Talk Episode 4

Video Upload Date: June 14, 2024

Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Hurricane Centre is predicting a significant hurricane season ahead.

This annual update followed the release of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Centre's outlook for the 2024 hurricane season.

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season this year, with 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said these are the highest numbers that NOAA has ever predicted during a spring hurricane season outlook.

Named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes can cause significant rainfall, damaging winds, high waves and storm surge, and these impacts are expected to be even more significant with climate change, said ECCC.

Global ocean temperatures hit a record high in February 2024 and North Atlantic temperatures have been at record highs for more than a year, said ECCC. Warmer water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to increase the number of storms this year, they noted.

Overall, scientists have already seen an indication of an increase in the global proportion of category 3-5 hurricanes over the past four decades, and with climate change, the intensity of the strongest hurricanes is expected to increase globally, added ECCC.

Meteorologist Chris Fogarty, Program Manager with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Hurricane Centre then sat down with Civic Journalist Jake Boudrot to answer some questions.

Considering the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is estimating its forecast has an 85 percent probability of being correct, Fogarty was asked if that is an unusual amount of certainty or making a conclusion based on the data.

During the briefing it was mentioned that there was a lot of uncertainty last year with storm tracks, Fogarty was then asked if he expects that will be the case this year.

Jake Boudrot’s final question was what storm preparations should the average person make ahead of the season.

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